May 2025
This article is based on publicly available information and media sources and is intended for informational purposes only. It is not comprehensive and should not be construed as official financial, legal, or investment advice. Readers are encouraged to seek professional counsel for specific matters.
At the invitation of President Xi Jinping, Kenyan President William Ruto conducted a high-level state visit to the People’s Republic of China from April 22 to 26, 2025. The visit marked a significant moment in China–Kenya relations, highlighting both countries’ commitment to deepening bilateral cooperation amid shifting global dynamics.
Diplomatic Engagements and Strategic Dialogue
In light of the recent U.S. tariffs, Presidents Xi and Ruto discussed the elevation of bilateral relations, expressing mutual support in safeguarding each other’s core interests. They also committed to deepening and expanding cooperation across various sectors, to build a China–Kenya community with a shared future in the new era. Many political commentators have noted a marked shift from the anti-China rhetoric of Ruto’s presidential campaign to this growing alignment, possibly reflecting Nairobi’s increasing frustration with Washington.
Also in attendance at the meeting were Premier Li Qiang of the State Council, Chairman Zhao Leji of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, and Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi.
Xi called on the two sides to enhance regular policy communication, build connectivity at a higher level, promote sustainable trade, explore diversified financial integration, carry forward the friendship forged through generations, and be leaders in advancing high-quality Belt and Road cooperation.
During the Kenya-China Private Sector Roundtable and Business Forum, President Ruto oversaw the signing of investment agreements worth approximately Ksh137 billion (US$1.06 billion). These deals span key sectors, including manufacturing, agriculture, tourism, and infrastructure, and are expected to generate over 28,000 jobs nationwide. Notably, US$430 million of the total investment is allocated to the agricultural sector.
Kenya, being a middle-income country, does not qualify for Beijing’s 2024 zero-tariff trade agreement, but a new ‘Framework Agreement on Economic Development for Shared Development’ lays the groundwork for a new comprehensive trade deal. This agreement aims to expand market access for Kenyan exports such as tea, coffee, avocado, macadamia, and other agricultural products. Ruto is currently negotiating free trade for these four products.
Trade and market Access:
Although Kenya does not currently qualify for China’s 2024 zero-tariff agreement for least-developed countries, the two sides signed a Framework Agreement on Economic Development for Shared Development. This framework paves the way for a potential Free Trade Agreement (FTA) aimed at increasing Kenyan exports to the Chinese market.
Key export commodities under discussion include:
- Avocado: Kenyan exports to China grew from 443.6 tonnes in 2022 to 4,324.1 tonnes in 2023.
- Macadamia nuts: Kenya ranks third globally in production.
- Tea, coffee, pulses, legumes, stevia, herbs and spices, and cut flowers.
Kenya seeks to replicate the success of its avocado exports through expanded access for additional agricultural goods.
Future outlook:
Kenya’s government believes that the successful completion of these projects could catalyse further investment in value-added sectors such as agroprocessing, logistics, and irrigation.
Kenya’s agroprocessing sector already contributes about 10% to the national GDP and employs over 200,000 people. Experts believe that with enhanced financing, modern technology, and expanded market access, Kenya aims to increase value addition in its agricultural exports and reduce post-harvest losses – key pillars of its long-term economic strategy.
